Episode 580: Don't Leave Home Without Listener Emails
Date November 26, 2014 Summary Ben and Sam end the holiday week with listener emails about Red Sox spending, the least similar teams, clubs doubling down on position players, and more. Topics * No-trade clauses * Trading newly signed free agents * Comparing the Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez contracts * Incorporating off-field value into contracts * Least similar MLB teams * Overachieving and underachieving players in 2014 * Teams acquiring extreme depth for position players * Two-man outfield * Hard to watch but great players Intro The Moody Blues, "The Best Way to Travel" Banter * Ben is happy that the podcast will end the week on a multiple of five. * Many listeners are sending Ben and Sam what they think are non-revelatory rumors that actually do have valuable information in them. * Ben highlights several other possible non-revelatory rumors relating to the Twins and Giants. * Episode 479 follow-up: A listener working with a hockey team wrote in about a document they found highlighting team 'ways' and their characteristics. * Russell Carleton attended an event that included a signed baseball from Ryan Webb as a silent auction item. Email Questions * Andy: "Quick question. How come when a player has a no trade clause a lot of times both the Red Sox and Yankees are on those lists?" * Darren (Auburn, WA): "What if a team felt they had better skill at negotiating contracts with team friendly terms and immediately signed a guy because they felt he was a good value regardless of need? For example let's say the A's thought Butler was undervalued at 3/$30 but weren't that interested in him given the current construction of their roster. Prior to the season starting could they realistically be able to extract value for negotiating a good deal and flip him if the free agent market gets more expensive or dried up as we progress through the winter? Or are these contracts so efficient that there wouldn't be anything to gain by doing this?" * Matt: "Who do you figure got a better contract of these two? It's interesting isn't it? Weighing and valuing various options correctly might be the things that even many semi-savvy fans do worst. All other considerations aside, would you rather be making $98 million over five years with a club option at the end of it or $88 million over four years with the chance to make it $110 million in five?" * Matt (Portland, OR): "If you were a MLB GM with an average team and an average farm system and you had the ability or requirement to take either Sandoval and his new contract or Hanley and his new contract from the Red Sox, which one would you select?" * Michael (Floyds Knobs, IN): "Noting that a contract decision on any player is ultimately a combination of the player's ability and the team's profitability, we need a metric that somehow combines WAR and a player's worth off the field. If attendance were to rise 5% year over year due to new player acquisitions or improved results that alone is worth tens of millions annually. Meanwhile any team handing out new contracts in the midst of negotiating a regional TV or radio deal should be viewed in a vacuum. Perceived overpays become bargains overnight if the acquisitions move the needle even a smidgen on a long term broadcasting deal." * Brett: "Who are the two least similar teams in MLB? My initial thought was Padres and Yankees. Payroll, league, geography, history, stadium size, fanbase. But I was hoping one of you could come up with something more interesting and justify it somehow." * Vinit (Boston, MA): "Have you noticed a recent trend of teams acquiring players for positions at which they are already strong or at least competent? The Cubs acquire Addison Russell when they have a doze shortstop prospects, the A's get Billy Butler when they had a good rotating DH strategy, the White Sox get Adam LaRoche when they had Abreu, and the Red Sox get Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez who both play third in 2015 if they were on different teams. Thoughts?" * Vinit (Boston, MA): "If you had Jason Heyward and Alex Gordon in your outfield corners who's the worst defensive player you could put in centerfield to still have an average outfield defense? Or would you even put someone in centerfield or go with two outfielders a la Sam Miller's idea?" * Eric: "Which MLB player is most like a Thanksgiving travel day? An arduous awful experience with, presuming you like your family and friends, a great payoff. Is the answer all prospects?" Play Index * Sam used the Play Index to see which players under or over achieved most in 2014 compared to their career averages. * He compared ERA+ (for pitchers) or OPS+ (for hitters) to their career averages to create ERA++ or OPS++, where 100 was career average. * Ben correctly guesses batters that overachieved included Michael Brantley, Justin Turner, Devin Mesoraco, and Steven Pearce. * Jose Molina had a 34 OPS++. Notes * Ben and Sam answered a similar question about no-trade clauses in Episode 240. * You cannot trade a newly signed free agent until June 15th unless the player approves the trade. * Sam would pick a shorter deal with a higher average annual value. He and Ben discussed the Sandoval and Ramirez contract talks in Episode 579. * Ben thinks that the Phillies and Astros are very different in how they've approached team building/rebuilding, but agrees with Sam that Yankees/Padres is likely as far apart as teams can get. Later in the episode Sam also names the Mets and A's as a pairing. * Sam says Fernando Rodney or Juan Gonzalez are the players that most fit Eric's question. Ben also names David Price or Joel Peralta. Links * Effectively Wild Episode 580: Don't Leave Home Without Listener Emails Category:Email Episodes Category:Episodes Category:Non-Revelatory Rumors